Bitcoin is unlikely to see a 10x price surge during the current 2026 bull cycle, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The analyst suggests that the market has entered a phase of maturity where the explosive, retail-driven rallies of the past are being replaced by steadier, institutional-led growth. This transition results in a "calmer" cycle, meaning that while the asset continues to trend upward, the parabolic volatility that previously defined crypto bull runs is dissipating.
The driving force behind this tempered outlook is the evolution of Bitcoin’s holder base. Throughout late 2025 and early 2026, the influx of capital has shifted toward institutional players and spot ETF providers. Unlike the speculative retail capital of previous years, this new wave of money is generally more stable and less prone to the emotional panic-selling or aggressive leverage that fueled historical boom-and-bust cycles. Consequently, Ju also predicts that the eventual bear market following this cycle will look significantly different and potentially less severe than those in the early 2020s.
From a regulatory and geopolitical perspective, this maturation aligns with the U.S. market's demand for Bitcoin to behave more like a traditional macro asset. As institutional adoption deepens, Bitcoin is increasingly sensitive to global liquidity and interest rate environments rather than just crypto-native hype. This shift matters to investors because it changes the risk-reward profile of the asset; while the "moonshot" potential may be lower, the probability of Bitcoin serving as a reliable long-term store of value within a diversified portfolio has increased.
Investors and traders should now watch for signs of institutional exhaustion or shifts in net ETF inflows as indicators of the cycle's peak. While a 10x rally is off the table according to this analysis, the focus remains on whether Bitcoin can maintain its new role as a stable institutional asset without succumbing to the high-percentage drawdowns of the past. Monitoring on-chain data for exchange whale ratios and long-term holder behavior will be critical in determining if this "calmer" cycle holds true.