CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has confirmed that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market phase, projecting a cycle peak of 3x to 5x from its recent lows. According to Ju, the primary catalyst for this shift is the sustained influx of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which has fundamentally changed market dynamics by dampening the extreme volatility typical of previous cycles. This shift suggests that while the parabolic 10x gains of the early 2010s may be less frequent, the current cycle offers a more mature and sustainable growth trajectory for institutional and retail investors alike.
The analysis highlights a significant departure from past bear-to-bull transitions. Ju points out that the massive liquidity provided by U.S.-based spot ETFs acts as a stabilizing force, absorbing sell pressure that would have previously caused deeper, more chaotic market corrections. For US-based traders, this indicates that Bitcoin is transitioning into an institutional-grade asset, where price discovery is increasingly influenced by steady fund inflows rather than purely speculative retail trading.
From a market perspective, this outlook confirms the end of the post-halving stagnation and sets a decidedly bullish tone for 2026. The 3x to 5x projection places Bitcoin in a price range that aligns with increasing corporate treasury adoption and the potential for sovereign wealth fund participation. However, Ju emphasizes that because of the ETF-driven dampening effect, investors should expect more controlled, grinding price action rather than the vertical spikes seen in 2017 or 2021.
Looking ahead, market participants should closely monitor net inflow data for major spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Federal Reserve's ongoing commentary on liquidity, as these factors will be the primary drivers of momentum in this cycle. As Bitcoin volatility continues to compress due to high-level institutional participation, the strategic focus for 2026 will likely shift toward long-term accumulation and the impact of institutional custody on available exchange supply.