SOON remains under significant bearish pressure in March 2026 because short-term holders (STHs) are aggressively offloading their tokens, creating a supply overhang that cancels out the bullish signals from the derivatives market. While funding rates remain positive—traditionally a sign that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions—this indicator is currently misleading. The sheer volume of spot selling from holders who acquired the token recently is preventing the price from stabilizing, making a near-term recovery difficult to achieve.
On-chain metrics indicate that short-term holders, often the most reactive segment of the market, are liquidating positions at a rapid clip. This cohort’s behavior typically dictates immediate price action, and their current exodus suggests a lack of confidence in SOON's immediate valuation. The mismatch between positive funding and price decline often points to a 'long squeeze' risk, where those betting on a recovery are forced to liquidate as the spot price continues to drift lower under selling pressure.
For US-based retail and institutional traders, this trend highlights the importance of looking beyond simple sentiment indicators like funding rates. In the current 2026 macroeconomic environment, where liquidity is highly sensitive to Federal Reserve signals, tokens experiencing high STH turnover are particularly vulnerable to volatility. The divergence seen in SOON suggests that the market is not yet ready to support a sustainable bounce, as the 'smart money' waits for the selling pressure to reach exhaustion levels.
Moving forward, market participants should watch for a stabilization in the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and a potential flip in funding rates to neutral or negative. A negative funding rate, combined with a decrease in selling volume, would paradoxically be a more reliable signal for a potential bottom than the current positive funding. Until the sell-side pressure from recent buyers subsides, SOON traders should remain cautious about entering long positions based solely on derivatives data.